Seasonality signals Thai product teams overlook
Local calendar effects that quietly warp activation and retention curves.
National holidays, school breaks, and regional festivals shift session quality and payment timing in ways global templates miss. A retention curve that ignores Songkran or year-end shopping weeks will look “wrong” until someone names the calendar.
We annotate forecasting windows with Thailand-specific seasonality notes before projecting demand. The goal is not to overfit every festival—it is to stop treating calendar noise as product failure.
Start with three years of weekly activations if you have them. Mark holidays. Then ask which dips repeat. Those repeats belong in the forecast narrative, not only in a chart footnote.