Forecasts need decisions, not false precision
Why a useful range beats a confident single number in application forecasting work.
Product teams often ask for a single forecast number because plans feel easier with one cell filled in. In application analytics, that comfort is expensive: a point estimate hides the uncertainty that should change how you staff, message, and sequence releases.
A useful forecast states a range, the decisions it informs, and the assumptions that would force a revision. When those three elements are present, leadership can plan without pretending the future is known.
In our Chiang Mai practice, we retire forecasts that never change a calendar. If no owner would act differently at the low versus high end of the range, the model is decoration.